Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8) will be presenting his work on “Ensuring the Security of the Clean Energy Transition: Examining the Impact of Geopolitical Risk on the Price of Critical Minerals”.
About this session: We use constant and time-varying parameter local projection (TVP-LP) regression models to examine the effect of geopolitical risk on prices of six critical minerals: aluminium, copper, nickel, platinum, tin and zinc. We propose a conceptual framework in which the responsiveness of prices for critical minerals to geopolitical risk depends on the non-technical risk associated with procuring each critical mineral and geopolitical threats have a bigger effect on critical mineral prices than geopolitical acts. Our results are generally consistent with these predictions. We find considerable evidence that the effect of geopolitical risk on the prices of critical minerals is time varying, with the Gulf War, 9/11 terrorist attacks and COVID-19 pandemic each having a significant effect. We find that shocks due to geopolitical threats are generally bigger in magnitude than geopolitical acts and that prices respond more quickly to geopolitical threats.
When: Monday 1st of December
12.30-12.45 Light lunch and networking
12.45-13.45 Talk and Q&A.
Where: CRASSH meeting room (Alison Richards Building) on the Sidgwick site.
Lunch: A light lunch will be provided, but bring along your drink of choice!
Zoom: You can also join us virtually on Zoom.
The weekly climaTRACES workshops, organised by Kamiar Mohaddes and Henning Zschietzschmann, are attended by a diverse group of people from economics, geography, politics, engineering, business, earth sciences, natural sciences, and history, generating interdisciplinary discussion. One person leads the session, on either a paper they have written, a work in progress, or just an idea they have and would like feedback on. This is also an opportunity for people to find our more about the team on what climaTRACES have been up to and what future events and research projects are being developed.